Since the last time I posted, things have really exploded here at the University of San Diego - application-wise. While we were expecting to be ahead in applications by about 5 - 7%, in reality we are currently 12% ahead of where we were last year at this time, and well on our way to reaching 12,000 applications! With our goal of enrolling 1140 new freshman, we have some difficult decisions to make (and lots of them!).
In my last posting I talked about the art and science behind how many students an institution must take in order to enroll their class. With the increase in applications that we - and many others - are seeing in this admissions cycle, this decision about how many to take becomes an even more difficult task. Clearly, students are applying to lots of schools, not sure of where they might get in, what the public colleges may do with regard to enrollment, or how finances might affect their final choice. All very legitimate concerns. What these increased application numbers do is actually make the process harder for everyone to predict.
As my staff reviews these applications- and as I mentioned in an earlier post, they take great care to consider all the material a student submits - they are of course looking for academic achievement in the classroom first and foremost. Some of our decisions are relatively easy, in that there are many students with exceptional academic records applying to USD. Some of our decisions, unfortunately, are relatively easy for the opposite reason. We have some students who apply who are academically not prepared to handle the rigors of our curriculum. But as we make our way through this mountainous pile of applications, there are many, many applications that are not so obvious. Here's where the "admission's math" of how many to take meets the individual stories and accomplishments of our applicants.
Our staff and many across the country are truly impressed with so many of our young people who are applying to college. They balance strong academic programs with impressive extracurricular activities, are committed to making a difference in the world through service, and are involved in their schools and communities. Many of them do this while dealing with incredible personal issues - family, illness, and death - any number of things that have a huge impact on their lives. As we read these files, we can't help but be impressed and in many cases inspired.
I mentioned last week our institutional priorities that we seek to consider in our admission decisions. Enrolling a diverse class, filling or restricting certain majors, or having more out-of-state students, for example, are among the priorities that many colleges bring to the admissions process. As we read applications, we look to find students who will not only contribute to these priorities, but who will also most likely benefit from our programs and faculty.
So our admitted student pool begins to be filled with those who have the strongest academic credentials, those who most match our institutional priorities, those who we think will bring unique talents and gifts to our campus, and those we think will most benefit from what we have to offer. There are also those incredibly inspiring stories that we want to find room for, and students the staff have worked with for months and months during the recruitment process. As you can perhaps begin to imagine, the pool starts to fill up awfully quickly.
So how do we know when to stop admitting? I mentioned last time we try and estimate how many of our admitted students will take us up on our offer. This math depends on the type of students we have in our respective "pools". Stronger academic students may "yield" at a lower rate - they have the most options and often receive the most financial incentive through merit scholarships. At some institutions, distance may play a factor in yield - the further away from campus, the less likely they are to enroll. At others, certain majors yield higher or lower, etc. We take our applicant pool and measure its relative strength, its composition, the historic yields of all those groups, and arrive at a number, or more likely a range. This represents how many we can take.
Then the really hard decisions get made. Depending on how that math works out, we may not be able to find a place for all of those inspiring stories. Students we have come to know through the process and feel would be a great fit may end up on the wait list. In the end, ideally, we end up with a group of young men and women who are a blend of all these, but what we also end up with is another group of equally impressive young men and women who are left out (or on the wait list, which results in much the same feeling).
Some of our early action students have already experienced this "math" in action, unfortunately. I hope I have conveyed that while enrollment managers talk about this in terms of numbers, it is in fact a highly personal - and sometimes painful - process of making choices. The more selective the school, the more difficult those choices become.
My next topic will be to talk about some of the issues surrounding financial aid and the extent that universities help families with the cost of attendance. This will be timely as the deadline for completing the FAFSA (Free Application for Federal Student Aid) is coming up for many of us (March 2 in our case). Again, feel free to let me know if you have questions or comments, or even suggestions for additional blogs. Good luck to you all and now it's back to reading - and deciding.
Peace,
Steve
Monday, January 25, 2010
Friday, January 8, 2010
It's Not Just Who Gets In, But How Many...Part I
Happy New Year and I hope 2010 is getting off to a great start. We enjoyed a nice break over the holiday but are back at the task of selecting the class for the fall. In my last posting, I talked about the mechanics of our application review - how we assemble all those applications and get them to our readers, as well as how they get reviewed. That process is still going on, not only for some remaining early action candidates, but for our very large and growing regular pool of applicants. In fact, we ended up about 13% ahead of last year's record number of early action applications (3461) and are currently 5% ahead in terms of regular decision applications. While these numbers are good news for us, indicating that USD is becoming a more popular and desirable place for more and more students, it also creates a number of challenges for us as we consider our admissions decisions. As the title of this week's entry indicates, figuring out how many students to take is a complex issue that enrollment officers across the country are trying their best to predict.
We hear all the time about hard it is to get into college, but the reality is that most colleges admit the majority of students who apply. According to recent data from the US Department of Education, the average acceptance rate at four-year colleges is 66.8 percent. Obviously, this varies greatly from the most selective schools to other, much less selective institutions, but is still an important factor for families to consider. Another recent trend is that students are, on average, applying to many more schools than before. Our professional association, the National Association of College Admission Counseling reports that in 2009, approximately three-quarters of four-year colleges and universities reported an increase in the number of applications from the previous year. The convergence of these and other data points surrounding applications, acceptances and enrollment create a dilemma for enrollment managers at many institutions - how many students should you accept in the spring in order to end up with the number of enrolled students you need in September?
For many of us, especially residential communities, we have a finite number of spaces that we can accommodate in the freshman class. As we plan for the admissions cycle, we start with that number, but we also would like that number to include a mix of students that match our institutional priorities and missions. For example, many schools look to have an ethnically diverse student body, a mix of international students, or a blend of students from different parts of the country. There may be certain majors that are impacted or, conversely, that need more enrollment. Gender, athletics, religion, academic quality (grade point average and test scores) are all factors that schools use to "shape" their respective classes.
Why that's important is because in order to end up with the right number and mix of students, we have to predict how many of our admitted students will take us up on our offer of admission (often referred to as the yield), and therefore have to predict how many students with those characteristics to accept. Since more students are applying to more colleges, it is increasingly difficult for enrollment managers to predict how many might enroll. That number, the yield, also varies greatly from school to school and is affected by a school's location, the amount of financial aid awarded, and dozens of other factors.
For example, at USD we are looking to enroll a class of about 1140 new freshman. In order to end up with that number, we have to predict how many to admit. Historically, we enroll approximately 20% of those we admit. If that number seems low, it is important to know that on average, our students apply to 11 schools and are admitted to nine of them. They have amazing choices, including some of the finest public universities in the country here in California (UCLA, Berkeley, UC-San Diego), as well as other outstanding private schools (Stanford, USC). Knowing that, we anticipate having to admit about 5700 students. Let's say we have a higher than expected yield, say 22%. If we admit those same 5700 students, we would have a class of 1250. That would be a huge problem for our residence halls and classrooms, not to mention parking! On the other end, if we have 2% fewer students that enroll, our class would only be 1026. I don't even want to think about what would happen then.
Next week, I will talk more about this idea of how many students to take and relate it to our admissions decisions. That's all for this week's enrollment management 101 lesson, but I hope that gave you some things to think about. Feel free to email me if you have questions or comments. We will be wrapping up our Early Action decisions this week and mailing them early next so hang in there if you haven't heard yet. For those of you regular applicants, our staff is ready to read your files next.
Peace,
Steve
We hear all the time about hard it is to get into college, but the reality is that most colleges admit the majority of students who apply. According to recent data from the US Department of Education, the average acceptance rate at four-year colleges is 66.8 percent. Obviously, this varies greatly from the most selective schools to other, much less selective institutions, but is still an important factor for families to consider. Another recent trend is that students are, on average, applying to many more schools than before. Our professional association, the National Association of College Admission Counseling reports that in 2009, approximately three-quarters of four-year colleges and universities reported an increase in the number of applications from the previous year. The convergence of these and other data points surrounding applications, acceptances and enrollment create a dilemma for enrollment managers at many institutions - how many students should you accept in the spring in order to end up with the number of enrolled students you need in September?
For many of us, especially residential communities, we have a finite number of spaces that we can accommodate in the freshman class. As we plan for the admissions cycle, we start with that number, but we also would like that number to include a mix of students that match our institutional priorities and missions. For example, many schools look to have an ethnically diverse student body, a mix of international students, or a blend of students from different parts of the country. There may be certain majors that are impacted or, conversely, that need more enrollment. Gender, athletics, religion, academic quality (grade point average and test scores) are all factors that schools use to "shape" their respective classes.
Why that's important is because in order to end up with the right number and mix of students, we have to predict how many of our admitted students will take us up on our offer of admission (often referred to as the yield), and therefore have to predict how many students with those characteristics to accept. Since more students are applying to more colleges, it is increasingly difficult for enrollment managers to predict how many might enroll. That number, the yield, also varies greatly from school to school and is affected by a school's location, the amount of financial aid awarded, and dozens of other factors.
For example, at USD we are looking to enroll a class of about 1140 new freshman. In order to end up with that number, we have to predict how many to admit. Historically, we enroll approximately 20% of those we admit. If that number seems low, it is important to know that on average, our students apply to 11 schools and are admitted to nine of them. They have amazing choices, including some of the finest public universities in the country here in California (UCLA, Berkeley, UC-San Diego), as well as other outstanding private schools (Stanford, USC). Knowing that, we anticipate having to admit about 5700 students. Let's say we have a higher than expected yield, say 22%. If we admit those same 5700 students, we would have a class of 1250. That would be a huge problem for our residence halls and classrooms, not to mention parking! On the other end, if we have 2% fewer students that enroll, our class would only be 1026. I don't even want to think about what would happen then.
Next week, I will talk more about this idea of how many students to take and relate it to our admissions decisions. That's all for this week's enrollment management 101 lesson, but I hope that gave you some things to think about. Feel free to email me if you have questions or comments. We will be wrapping up our Early Action decisions this week and mailing them early next so hang in there if you haven't heard yet. For those of you regular applicants, our staff is ready to read your files next.
Peace,
Steve
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